Impacts, risks and opportunities

In a strong population growth context where 40% of the population is under 15 years of age and 84% of the economy is informal, the Orabank Group ensures the identification and understanding of both the major expectations of its ecosystem, the various risks it faces in its activities and the opportunities that its business and its territory present to it.

Like all companies, the Orabank Group, through its activities, interacts with its societal environment. Identifying and analyzing the Group’s impact on its environment is part of its sustainable development approach to focus its actions on reducing negative effects and enhancing positive effects, both for itself and its stakeholders.

Africa has a double disease burden: endemic infectious diseases and the COVID-19 disease burden that emerged in early 2020 on the continent. In addition, its capacity to provide intensive care is the lowest in the world. Social distancing seems difficult on the continent, where the majority of the population lives on less than $2 a day and the burden of the informal economy is considerable. In 2019, the sector employed 86% of jobs, according to an ILO study. This means that most people do not have formal jobs with wages allowing them to support themselves on a regular basis.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the near-term outlook is mixed and closely linked to global economic developments. At the local level, the socio-political and security situation in many countries remains particularly challenging. After the rebound in 2021, GDP growth is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point, to 3.8%  for 2022 according to IMF estimates released in January 2023.

The barrel price increase due to the war in Ukraine leads to an increase in the costs of sea freight and therefore increases the cost of transport and the supply chain.

For the WAEMU region, growth should be 4.9% in 2022, down 1 percent from 2021. This trend is observed in our various countries of operations, except for Niger, which is expected to experience a positive variation. Inflation in the Union is expected to reach a high level in 2022 in line with the surge in international prices for imported food and petroleum products. Under the WAEMU’s monetary and financial position, the BCEAO raised policy interest rates in June 2022, September 2022, and December 2022. Politically, ECOWAS lifted sanctions against Mali on July 3, 2022, and the Malian government issued treasury bills and bonds on August 9, 2022, to settle outstanding market debt issued by auction of CFAF 215 billion.

In the CEMAC region, economic activity has been on an upward trend. It is driven by strong domestic demand and rising oil prices, as well as the renewed recovery of sectors affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The BEAC expects real GDP to grow by +2.90% in 2022 (compared with 1.7% in 2021). The Monetary Policy Committee has not changed policy rates since its meeting on March 28, 2022.

In Guinea, according to the latest World Bank report published in March 2023, GDP growth in 2022 reached 4.7%, after a sharp acceleration in mining activities. In the same year, inflation is estimated at 12.1 percent, down slightly from 2021 (12.6%), reflecting tight monetary policy and a strong exchange rate appreciation.

Finally, for Mauritania, growth accelerated from 2.4% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2022, driven by rising demand-side exports and the expansion of the agricultural sector on the supply side. Average annual inflation reached 9.5 percent in 2022. The Monetary Policy Council remains concerned about inflation developments and has decided to monitor price developments closely and to tighten monetary policy by raising the policy rate as needed.